The PSTI JUNIPER Programme on managing
reservoir uncertainty has reached its one year review point.
A two-day workshop to discuss work to date was held on 23-24 April in Bristol. This was attended by representatives from 20 Member Companies. Two potential concepts for joint industry-funded projects (JIP's) were announced.
Project CASSANDRA - Case-Based
Reasoning Developed for Reservoir
Appraisal and Development - aims to develop a computer
based tool for application during reservoir appraisal and development
to predict reservoir performance and assess the uncertainty associated
with the prediction. Case-based reasoning will be utilised drawing
on the wealth of existing knowledge and experience of reservoir
performance.
Project STADIUM - Strategies
and Strategic Decision Making at Appraisal Incorporating
Uncertainty Management - aims to develop
a coherent methodology for evaluation and implementation of alternative
strategies of reservoir appraisal and development incorporating
the management of risk.
Both projects build on the existing subscription-funded
project being undertaken at the universities of Bristol and Aberdeen.
The key deliverables of this project will include:
delineation of decision making processes during reservoir appraisal and development;
an appropriate technique for generic modelling of uncertainty;
critique and documentation of current
approaches of handling uncertainty.
The JIP's will develop new techniques and
methodologies. Project CASSANDRA will develop case-based reasoning
where a new problem is solved by remembering previous similar
situations and by reusing information and knowledge of that situation.
Project STADIUM will utilise several techniques
including theories of evidence, theories of argumentation and
the concept of vulnerability (as developed by Prof David Blockley
at Bristol University) to analyse strategies for appraisal and
development. Project STADIUM aims to develop an approach to the
management of risk which avoids the severe limitations of existing
risk analysis techniques. In particular, the assumptions of dependency
and the 'closed world' probabilistic nature of risk analysis will
be addressed.
For further information contact Alistair
Fletcher, e-mail: [email protected] Tel: 0117 928 9117 Fax
0117 927 7203 .